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Prepared by StratagemTRADE.com and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Monday | September 14, 2020

Hello Eizell.

YESTERDAY'S CLOSING PRICES

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YESTERDAY: September 11

SPX 3340.97

Four day weeks seem harder that if it were a 6-day week. One expects an easy go at it, and it is more chaotic than the previous week. Last week's chaos ended Friday with a glimmer of hope on the open that we had seen the bottom of selling pressure.

The SPX and other indexes jumped higher by about 30 points, but sank immediately to the unchanged line. This had traders concerned of another day of selling; however, they ran back to the +30 line in the SPX. This had traders confused and thinking the first round of selling was a trap and it was safe to buy shares. After that AAPL started to sink while the SPX slowly wafted higher, thus adding more confusion given AAPL has been the North Star the indexes affixed their gaze to. As APPL continued to be sold the fear of AAPL dying again was too much and the market sunk like a rock.

The +30 net change turned into a -28 net change with the Minis December contract touching 3300. This seemed like a logical place to attempt to get long, and the markets bounced. The rest of the day was spent watching the SPX get back to the unchanged line and close the day +1.78.

In summary, the chaos of the shortened week ended with a fizzle – not a bang. Instead traders watched television reports of idiocy we now call “politics”. The inmates seem to have taken over the asylum as the world gets nuttier. Friday saw one of the most patriotic symbols of America, the Blue Angels, have their 9-11 fly over of NY canceled.

I TOLD YOU. And it will get even nuttier in the next 49 days. I am sure it is all a coincidence.

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TODAY: September 14

TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK

TODAY – Last weeks chaos is over for today, and we need to go higher before lower.

FIRST – I AM NOT BEING POLITICAL. I am just trying to be objective in order to predict the markets in the next 60 days. My opinions do not matter. All that matters for traders is guessing who will win, and the market's reaction. Do you remember the chaos after “There is no path to 270 for Trump” election? Traders got smashed for being biased.

Less than 50 days until the elections and 1-day predictions will become futile as the world gets more chaotic. We are in a world where lies must be accepted as fact or you are insensitive, a racist or a “Trumper”.

Think of what is going on in the country, coincidentally during an election period:

  • Mueller's team is being caught in a cover up and wiping phones.
  • A man with perceived diminished mental capacities is being propped up to run.
  • The wild fires may have been arson.
  • Every week, we have a new riot started where felonies are occurring my the thousands, and the cops that try to uphold the law and protect the people and property are the labeled “the bad guys”.
  • Biden's campaign somehow mysteriously found $200 million no one can explain, and probably not from any of the big social media billionaires who hate Trump. Probably $1 donations from everyone in the country over the age of 18. I forgot to send my $1, which is also part of AOC's plan to save the US Post Office – along with “pen pals”.
  • Etc.

Of course all of these things were coincidences, and just look conspiratorial right before an election.

I have said that things will get nuttier closer to the election. Why? If Biden was running against even a lukewarm Republican President like George Bush, Sr., the election would be over already with Biden having to admit defeat. Biden's chance of winning is not a surprise in the debate – that will not happen.

His chances of winning hinge on people hating Trump more than they are afraid of a President Biden forgetting where his office is every morning. I feel bad for Biden. He had a long career, and like many boxers who fight one too many fights for the needed cash (see Tyson fight Roy Jones this November), he should just enjoy his past.

BTW – has anyone seen a car with a Biden sticker on it? Look hard for a Biden sticker and tell me if you believe the media's polls indicating he is in the lead. You likely will see more Gore '88 stickers.

When Hillary was running (and lost), ¼ cars had a “I'm with Her” sticker. You can't buy a used car in Chicago without having to peel one off. I have not seen one Biden sticker. Maybe he forgot to have them printed?

NEXT BIG DAYS:

Sept 29 – Presidential debate #1
October 15 – Presidential debate #2
October 22 – Presidential debate #3

I am still standing by my prediction (made December 31, 2019) that we will be positive for the year and making new all-time highs by the end of the year. I maintained this stance even when the SPX was down -36% for the year (this has been here since January 1).

S&P 500 Price Limits

From 8:30 a.m. to 2:25 p.m. CST, there are successive price limits corresponding to 7%, 13%, and 20% declines below the previous trading day’s reference price.

From 2:25 p.m. until the 3:00 p.m. CST close of the cash equity market, only the 20% price limit will be applicable.

2020 ONE-YEAR PREDICTION:
Average year with lots of intermittent volatility
(+3.41% so far)

POT Logo

We got on a great short term RT hedge. Time for more hedges the higher we go. We turned the Billy Baroo into a guaranteed profit. We also finished up the Sept 18 hedge, and need to move on as this is expiring soon. Fun week, but on to the next. Lastly, on Friday I did a long write up about the reason why I entered into a long RT when it looked like the market was going higher – right before it dropped. I hope that was helpful explaining how I used AAPL as an indicator that we were about to drop.

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DISCUSSION BOARD

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LAUGH OF THE DAY

Trading is a tough job on a stomach void of coffee and humor.
You provide the coffee and we will take care of the rest.

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