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Prepared by and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Wednesday | January 8, 2020

Hello Mayumi.



YESTERDAY: January 7

For the 3rd day in a row, the market opened on its low because of the Iran situation, and then bounced. The SPX opened down -13.85. Within 2 hours, the SPX had got back to only -1.37 on the day. It then backed off to -6 and sat until the close.

On the close, the futures got slammed, and no one could figure out what was the cause. Turns out Iran Prime Ministers passed a bill labeling all US military personnel “terrorist entities”. This was foreshadowing for the events hours later.



At about 5:15pm Chicago time, Iran launched 15 missiles towards a US base in Iraq. Reports and video of the missiles flying through the sky sent Minis lower. I was about to send a POT update and buy MINI futures, but decided I had better have one more POT class in February before I do this.

As it turns out: 10 missiles landed near the base. 4 missiles didn't work. 1 missile is missing.

Al-Assad Air Base in Iraq


Iran immediately took responsibility for the missiles calling it “Operation Martyr Suileimani”. Shortly after the White House announced they were assessing the damage, but it looks like no Americans or Iraqis were killed.


Immediately, this smelled like a symbolic launch. The base Iran chose to attack is in the middle of nowhere, and no one was hurt. There are closer bases in densely populated areas that would have killed people if Iran intended to. Iran knows, however, that Trump promised to attack 52 sites if 1 American was killed. Were they purposely trying to avoid casualties, act tough, and then vanish for a few months? If they hit Israel or Saudi Arabia, they know they would be hit back.

They are accurately aware President Trump is more like Ronald Reagan than Jimmy Carter, and there are 45 US bases surrounding them. They know we have B-52s squadrons there and carriers as well.


TODAY: January 8


President Trump has shown unbelievable restraint. Despite Iran shooting down drones, shooting oil tankers, etc. President Trump has not done anything but increase sanctions until an American was killed. It was not until American blood was shed that he lit up a mass murderer and poet (can't forget the poetry Sueileimani is famous for) with a drone attack.

At the time of this writing, there is no indication any American or Iraqi got so much as a splinter. My best guess is Trump will increase sanctions, but he has other tools available too. He can shut down their power grid like we did in Venezuela. We can melt down their computers with viruses. We can have a quarantine of their ships like Kennedy did to Cuba.


President Trump speaks today and may announce what the US reaction to the bottle rocket attack will be. It is hard for the markets to bounce from here with the fear of “What's next” looming.

2020 ONE-YEAR PREDICTION: Average year with lots of intermittent volatility (+.03% so far)

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