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Prepared by StratagemTRADE.com and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Monday | June 29, 2020

Hello Eizell.

YESTERDAY'S CLOSING PRICES

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YESTERDAY: June 26

The previous night, the SPX closed at 3083.76, so if we were to test 3021, it would mean we would have to sell off 62 SPX points – a big move and not likely to actually happen.

The SPX opened down -10 points and within 70 minutes, we tested 3021. We tested it again at 11:15am (Chicago time), and once again at 11:45. At about 1:30pm, we fell through the number after bouncing off of it three times, and kept falling. By the close, the SPX got down to 3004, almost testing 3000 – something we will probably do today.

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TODAY: June 29

TODAY – Testing 3000, and it holds.

LONG TERM – NEW ALL TIME HIGHS (possibly), and then a NASTY trade war sell-off – probably after the election.

I don't know how much of the newest wave in coronavirus is real, how much is hype, how much is political nonsense to influence the election for Biden, and how much is just the fact that testing is now prevalent. If we didn't test anyone, we would have zero cases, but we are testing like crazy now. And no matter how many we test, we do not have 120 million dead like Biden said on Thursday (June 25).

It is the actual amount of people who died that counts. We were told it was going to be 2-3 million. We were told it would be 3-4% of the country, and it is thankfully having a mortality rate of about 0.2%, with close to half of them being nursing home patients. We are getting very lucky.

We closed Friday very, very close to 3000 in the SPX, and this is a HUGE number. I am of the mind that we will have to test it. We might even get a mini-panic for a short period of time with stop loss orders take us below it, but at some point, we have to get long the market today.

I am still standing by my prediction (made December 31, 2019) that we will be positive for the year and making new all-time highs by the end of the year. I maintained this stance even when the SPX was down -35% for the year.

S&P 500 Price Limits

From 8:30 a.m. to 2:25 p.m. CST, there are successive price limits corresponding to 7%, 13%, and 20% declines below the previous trading day’s reference price.

From 2:25 p.m. until the 3:00 p.m. CST close of the cash equity market, only the 20% price limit will be applicable.

2020 ONE-YEAR PREDICTION:
Average year with lots of intermittent volatility
(-6.86% so far)

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A separate update coming.


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