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Prepared by and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Monday | August 17, 2020

Hello Eizell.



YESTERDAY: August 14

The last 4 trading days saw the SPX cash attempt to go higher, but keep having problems at 3880. We have been as high as 3887 on Wednesday and Thursday, and 3880 on Tuesday and Friday. Each time the market gets above 3380, it falls and is unable to touch the all-time highs made in February (pre-covid) of 3397.50.

Friday was another failed attempt. The market moved higher to 3378.51, and saw another failed attempt to close above 3380. After that the market sold off falling -20 SPX points to 3361, and then bounced +10 on the bell to close at 3372.85.


All last week, I stated in the TODAY section of the Morning Coffee Report that we would touch the all-time highs by Friday. I was wrong. We got within 10 points of the intra-day highs, and 5 points of the closing highs, but that does not count in Vegas. It was close, but no cigar.

BTW....for those who don't know what “close but not cigar” means.....back in the 1800's traveling carnivals use to give out prizes of cigars or whiskey to winners, not teddy bears. I miss the old days.


TODAY: August 17

TODAY Touching record high (3393.52) by end of week.

LONG TERM – NEW ALL TIME HIGHS (possibly), and then a NASTY trade war sell-off – probably after the election (This one has been here for WEEKS. Nothing changed).

Last week, I expected the markets to flirt with the all-time highs especially after Joe Biden chose a candidate that the markets don't expect to move the scales in his favor. Yes, the media is taking Kamala Harris and lifting her to be even bigger and better than Obama; however, much of the world is coming up with hilarious memes about the two.

The market doesn't care what CNN reads through the BS and politics, and tries to make an objective decision. I apparently was early, which I usually am. So I am staying with my same prediction; however, I am pushing it out to this Friday (from last Friday).

I am still standing by my prediction (made December 31, 2019) that we will be positive for the year and making new all-time highs by the end of the year. I maintained this stance even when the SPX was down -36% for the year (this has been here since January 1).

S&P 500 Price Limits

From 8:30 a.m. to 2:25 p.m. CST, there are successive price limits corresponding to 7%, 13%, and 20% declines below the previous trading day’s reference price.

From 2:25 p.m. until the 3:00 p.m. CST close of the cash equity market, only the 20% price limit will be applicable.

Average year with lots of intermittent volatility
(4.40% so far)

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