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Prepared by and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Tuesday | September 23, 2020

Hello Eizell.



Days First Debates = 6


YESTERDAY: September 22

SPX 3315.57 +34.51


Fun times when the multiple personalities of the market fight it out. Dr. Jeckyll (great economic numbers an overdue technical bounce) fought with Mr. Hyde (Congress and Powell) over control of the body. It was a classic example of the devil and angel on the market's shoulders trying to compete for a winning argument.

The market opened higher and fell into the negative area as we got closer to Steve Mnuchin and Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress. The odds of making money by getting short the market when Powell is about to speak are astronomical.

As the hearings went on, the market fell a couple of times rapidly when Powell answered a loaded question from an unhappy Congress. Yet, once the circus left town and the congressmen went back to the bars, the market exhaled a sigh of relief and climbed again. Again, AAPL shares were the main compass directing the overall market.

At the end of the day, AAPL jumped above its 50-day Moving Average (MA), taking the SPX above the 3,300 resistance line. SPX closed at 3315.57 (+34.51), which by coincident was abut what we fell yesterday. AAPL closed well above the its 50-day at 111.81 (+1.73).


TODAY: September 23

TODAY Higher?

Minis are lower, but I don't care. I still think we are going higher. It is a tough call going into the election. This is going to get nuts. We saw Monday selling off huge, half of which was because Trump said he would nominate a replacement for RBG by Saturday, and reflexively the Dems said they will impeach. The reason for impeachment will come later.

We are down to 6 days before the debates, If they come no one reasonably expects Biden to be standing after the first round. This means there needs to be a news article the next day that will divert from the debates, and will kill the markets. Until then, any prediction is based on my opinion and experience without the knowledge of what unexpected news, shootings, riots covid-round-two, etc. events come up overnight.


Sept 29 – Presidential debate #1
October 15 – Presidential debate #2
October 22 – Presidential debate #3

I am still standing by my prediction (made December 31, 2019) that we will be positive for the year and making new all-time highs by the end of the year. I maintained this stance even when the SPX was down -36% for the year (this has been here since January 1).

S&P 500 Price Limits

From 8:30 a.m. to 2:25 p.m. CST, there are successive price limits corresponding to 7%, 13%, and 20% declines below the previous trading day’s reference price.

From 2:25 p.m. until the 3:00 p.m. CST close of the cash equity market, only the 20% price limit will be applicable.

Average year with lots of intermittent volatility
(+2.62% so far)

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