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Prepared by and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Monday | January 6, 2020

Hello Mayumi.



YESTERDAY: January 3


After three weeks of complete boredom, bordering on a comma, the market had its first 1% move to the downside on an open. What cleared the congestion from the lungs was a President Trump's perfectly timed and executed drone attack on Iran's #2 idiot – Qassam Soleimani.

This puss-sack has the blood of 600 American soldiers on his hands, and the the only ones more upset about his death than Iran is the Democrat party. Even Soleimani's mom agrees that this rabid dog needed to die, but half of the country didn't want Trump to be the one to pull the trigger.

This 100% partisan criticism, along with threats from Iran, spooked the markets. Fear of how Iran would react caused bonds to jump in a flight to safety. Fear of Straights of Hormuz being shut down had oil spike higher by $2. Complacency by traders bored and doing crossword puzzles all day had people panicking over a good thing.

The media was stoking fear over this leading to a war. In case they are not paying attention, Iran has been attacking the US for months. It shot down drones. It sent torpedo into oil tankers. It has finger prints all over October 31 attack on the Baghdad embassy. One can argue if targeting Soleimani was a “measured response”, it does have to have the Iranian leadership worried every-time they stop moving.

Every moment of the day, President Rouhani and those more evil that him have to be thinking “is that a missile I hear?”


All of this nervousness has the Minis and SPX open -$35 points. They were there for only seconds before jumping $10 points (net -$25).


After the first 30 seconds of trading, the opening opportunity was over. You either had a resting order in at the open, or you missed the bottom. For the next 90 minutes, the market sat in a $5 channel between 3,235 and 3,230. After this resting period, beaten down stocks like AMD, BA, CMG and AAPL started to go back to the unchanged line. Along with the realization that killing Salami is a good thing and the market leading stocks floating higher, the SPX staged an attempt to get back to the “unchanged line”.

With a high in the SPX of 3,246.15, the closest the market got to being unchanged was a net change of -$11.35.


Nervous about continued Iranian threats and politicians complaining they were not included in the decision, the market sighed out some air. In a sign of caution of what could happen over the weekend, the Minis sold back off and closed down -$23.


TODAY: January 6



Over the weekend, President Trump warned that any revenge attacks on Americans will result in an immediate attack on 52 already determined sites. The number 52 is significant. That is the number of US hostages held for 444 days when Jimmy Carter was in office.

After that, Iran announced they have a $80 million bounty on President Trump's head. It sounds scary, but you have to think that they would try to kill any US president given the opportunity.


An attack on a US base in Kenya left 2 Soldiers wounded and 3 dead. Al Shabaab is being blamed and taking credit for the attacks. Gangs in Chicago have more people and guns that Al Shabaab. It would take long for Ahmed Umar to see the words Rytheon entering through his living room window. One has to consider if Iran used Al Shabaab as a “cat's paw”?


Cooler heads always prevail over a weekend of cocktails. We will likely have some weakness because of the attacks in Africa, but things will be muted. I would love to see a flush out with the market opening -35 points lower again, as I would use it as a buying opportunity, but I doubt we get even $10 points.

2020 ONE-YEAR PREDICTION: Average year with lots of intermittent volatility (+.1% so far)

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