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Prepared by StratagemTRADE.com and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Friday | January 31, 2020

Hello Mayumi.

YESTERDAY'S CLOSING PRICES

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YESTERDAY: January 30

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Sybil

The market opened lower by almost 1% because of the Coronavirus. Like the Chinese trade war, the Chinese disease is vacillating between not being “that bad” and the end of civilization a couple times every day.

At the lows, the SPX was down -30.60 but it did try to get back to the unchanged line a couple of times, though it failed. At about 1:45pm (Chicago time), news came out from the World Health Organization (WHO) that it is labeling the disease as a “global pandemic”.

One would think that scary words from the WHO would be a negative thing? Personally, I have about 50 people who look at me funny as a result of rumors from less credible sources than the World Health Organization.

I always incorrectly assumed that Laurence Peter was right when he said “Make three correct guesses consecutively and you will establish a reputation as an expert”. One would assume that when the WHO says “Global pandemic,” it would have the same effect as yelling “FIRE” in a crowded theater. Instead of falling, the market ran higher.

From a net change of -15, the SPX ran to the unchanged line, where it sat until the last 30 minutes of trading. On the close, the SPX ran yet another +10 points higher.

AMD had been as low at 46.13, but closed at 48.78 (+1.27)

AAPL had been as low as 318.75 but close at 323.87 (-0.47)

VIX had been as high as 18.39, closed at 14.60 (-0.25)

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TODAY: January 31

Yesterday's last minute run higher despite bad news on the Coronavirus indicates that this market wants to move higher – barring a real big shock and new information about the virus.

What will also help the markets is if the impeachment joke is thrown out. I am guessing the whole thing is over with by tomorrow. Many people running for the White House have made appearance plans over the weekend, which they would not do if expecting to be working over the weekend. The hearings are going so poorly for the democrats that Adam Schiff tried to change the “iron clad” charges he had on President Trump to different “crimes”.

Remember, Trump is being impeached on two charges: (1) Abuse of Power, (2) Obstruction of Congress. Despite saying his case against Trump is perfect, Schiff is ignoring these two charges and now wants to charge Trump on bribery.

I suspect the impeachment managers know this is a lost cause, especially with zero Nielsen ratings for them to get viewers. They will all sneak out of town and try to figure out how to spin this mess into a positive. The markets will like that this minuscule uncertainty is over.

2020 ONE-YEAR PREDICTION:
Average year with lots of intermittent volatility
(+1.64% so far)

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Separate update coming.

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