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Prepared by and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Tuesday | March 24, 2020

Hello Friend.




What it all comes down to
Is that everything's gonna be fine, fine, fine
'Cause I've got one hand in my pocket
And the other one is giving a high five

—Alanis Morissette


Above is the prediction I made 2 days ago. Yesterday, it fell apart because of Congress – not the virus. Congress was squabbling over the stimulus bill to keep the country's people employed.

In a last minute 1200 page bill, it appears that the Democrat Congresspeople jammed in “pet projects” like GREEN NEW DEAL items on airplane emissions, last minute voter registration, union collective bargaining language, and windmills and solar panel funding. All one can say (if accurate) is WHAT THE F*#k? This is not the time to play partisan politics. Obviously, I didn't read the 1,120 page bill. I don't know if anyone did. I am going off of what the media is reporting, and what Republican politicians are saying obstructed the vote as Dems would not remove it from the bill.

Apparently, we need windmills to cure the coronavirus and get 50 million American service industry workers back to the job.

It was the collapse of this bill that caused the market to fall. At the close, the MINIS were down over -113 points, until a last minute hope that maybe something can be passed the next day allowed the market to bounce.

The Dow closed down -582.05, the SPX closed down -67.52. AAPL was down -4.87 (224.37).

COINCIDENCE: The market is now down from the highs about the same as it fell during the Spanish Flu. The difference now is that we will find a cure and the Fed is pouring money into the economy with a fire hose. Be careful of being short deltas when this bounces.

I said at the start of the year that I don't think we will be up much this year, but we will have a lot of volatility. Maybe I will be right?


TODAY: March 24


There is now hope.

It may be a false start, but it is a start. The Fed is promising everything that it takes from their end. The President is doing more than any other President in history to fast track drugs and get money to people affected by the virus. The only speed bump so far is a cure and Congress – or a cure for Congress. I am shocked to see Congress has an approval rating as high as 21%.

Now we have a doctor in NY, a city hit hard with the virus, who is having huge anecdotal success with the virus. His team has treated 350 patients with zero deaths, zero hospitalizations and zero intubations with a combination of readily available medications that have decades of safety. It is as follows:


I am telling you right now, the more promise this shows, the higher the market will go. I first thought we would have a “U” shaped recovery, but IF this proves to be the magic bullet (too early to tell until later in the week) we could see a “V” bottom.

Get your cheap plane tickets to Maui now, before it is official, as airlines and hotels will jack their prices fast.

WE MIGHT BE at the beginning of the end.

S&P 500 Price Limits

From 8:30 a.m. to 2:25 p.m. CST, there are successive price limits corresponding to 7%, 13%, and 20% declines below the previous trading day’s reference price.

From 2:25 p.m. until the 3:00 p.m. CST close of the cash equity market, only the 20% price limit will be applicable.

You’re braver than you believe, stronger than you seem and smarter than you think”.
—Christopher Robin, Winnie the Pooh

Average year with lots of inter42mittent volatility
(-30.75% so far)

POT Logo

Doing some fun things trying to hit singles and keep risk low until the market's infection is over. Illustrated buying AAPL down -15 and hedging down -5. Doing half size long delta Risk Reversals. Have collars that are tweaked. Today should be fun.



Up and Running for POT students (so far).

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