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Prepared by and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Tuesday | April 28, 2020

Hello Eizell.




Weeks ago, we saw 5 – 7% moves and now we seem to be settling down to 1.5% moves on a typical day. Yesterday we saw just such a move.

The SPX and other indexes opened higher by 30 SPX points and drifted higher on a shallow slope the whole day. These may be relatively large net changes on the day, but the moves are slow and boring. Missing are the news events from weeks ago that takes the market from a positive 300 points to a negative 300 points (or the reverse) in seconds.

Also, what was different is despite the Dow closing higher by 358 points and the SPX by 41.78, AAPL closed higher by only 0.20. Reports came out that AAPL may be cutting production of iPhones by 20%. Since the majority of iPhone sales, at least in Chicago, are inside malls that are now closed, this should not come as a surprise.

What was a shock is Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) got Federal Reserve backing despite doing everything humanly possible to appear like it was not an American company. This is obviously to avoid paying taxes. I would have guessed pizza and retail stores that had to shut down would get government assistance before TESLA, and Harvard, a university that can still teach online and has $38 billion in cash from donors.

Once again, this is another government funded program that seemingly goes to favorites, not the people who need it. As a result CCL was higher by 9% to close at 12.98 (+1.07).


TODAY: April 27

The FUN part of earnings season starts today. In addition, the USO will split 8:1 today.


I am still standing by my prediction (made December 31, 2019) that we will be positive for the year and making new all-time highs by the end of the year. I maintained this stance even when the SPX was down -35% for the year.

S&P 500 Price Limits

From 8:30 a.m. to 2:25 p.m. CST, there are successive price limits corresponding to 7%, 13%, and 20% declines below the previous trading day’s reference price.

From 2:25 p.m. until the 3:00 p.m. CST close of the cash equity market, only the 20% price limit will be applicable.


Average year with lots of inter42mittent volatility
(-10.9% so far)

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