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Prepared by and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Tuesday | February 25, 2020

Hello Mayumi.



YESTERDAY: February 24

Monday Summary:

The worst day for the markets in 2 years since the last 1000 point day. It is the first time of the year that the market is in negative territory as measured by the SPX since Jan 31.

Over the weekend, news emerged that the coronavirus cases in S. Korea, Iran, and Italy were spiking higher and with a rate that the markets deemed troublesome. Until Saturday, it seemed that the virus was somewhat contained to China with the exception of a few rogue patients in several countries. The world knew China was lying about their numbers of infected, but did it matter so long as it was contained to China?


At the open, the SPX fell about -80 points, but bounced for a minute to trap bottom fishers into thinking it was another “V” bottom/oversold situation. It was a trap – a bear trap.


Within 40 minutes of the open, the major indexes started to fall again, with the SPX hitting a low of -111.86 (3,214.65) right after lunch.

From the lows, the market bounce 40 points, though it felt like 10 on a day like this. The last half hour saw the SPX sell back off 25 points lower to settle at 3225.89.


AAPL – Shares of AAPL got spanked down -14.87 to close at 298.18 (-4.75%). It is important to remember that the SPX closed down 3.35% and AAPL has been a market leader to the new highs before he drop.

VIX – The Volatility Index closed at 25.03 which was a close high of 7.95. (+46.55%) This is a HUGE gain, and if we fall again tomorrow I am going to be forced to do a large Vipar.

OTHER – Most of the stocks we watch (BA, PFE, AMZN, FB, GOOGL, JPM, NFLX) were down between 2% and 4%. In other words, there was selling across the board.


TODAY: February 25


We have not had a V-bottom in the day yesterday. We don't have an end in sight. We don't have a date where we can look knowing with certainty if numbers are increasing or decreasing in new infected patients. We have no idea if/when a vaccine for the virus will be done. We have no real understanding of the true nature of the virus because most cases are in China – and CHINA LIES.

So going forward in the short term, picking direction is tough.

Average year with lots of intermittent volatility
(-0.15% so far)

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This is when the FUN starts. Chaos!

A separate update is coming. Remember, there are things to do when everyone is panicking.



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