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Prepared by StratagemTRADE.com and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Tuesday | September 8, 2020

Hello Eizell.

YESTERDAY'S CLOSING PRICES

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YESTERDAY: September 4

SPX 3426.96.06. After 4 days above 3500, we fell hard for 3 days.

Friday was a another day of excitement, though calming down from the previous day's move. The SPX market opened a little higher while bouncing from the previous day's exaggerated selling. Within the first 30 minutes, the market had fallen to the unchanged line, and within the first hour, the SPX hit the low of the day at 3349.64 (-105.43).

We spent the rest of the day inching higher as the day progressed. As is usual, the market ran higher into the close with the SPX getting back to the unchanged line. Then in the last 30 minutes of trading, there was a 25 point drop in the SPX as people decided they didn't want to own shares going into a long weekend.

What is interesting is:

On Friday, I predicted (see image below) that the market would be lower – and it was. At the lows i t was down -105 SPX points, and this seemed about right. What was surprising is how fast we bounced to almost go positive again for the day. This is a strong market.

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AAPL and TESLA helped lead the markets lower this week with surprised drops that were huge. Yet on Friday AAPL bounced from the lows to post an $0.08 gain on the day, and TSLA bounced to close 11.32 higher (418.32). This had some speculating the quick drop we saw the last few days was a normal correction, and the bull is back running down the streets of Pamplona, Spain.

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TODAY: September 4

TODAY – Post Labor Day Bounce, but election is in crunch time.

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The very concept of objective truth is fading out of the world. Lies pass as fact, and become history.

The media is just making up facts, poll number etc. to support the narrative that Biden is leading. WRONG.

I live in the Chicago-land area, one of the top democratic bases in the world. We have not had a republican mayor since 1932. In 2016 roughly 1/3 of all cars I saw had a “HILLARY 2016” or “I'M WITH HER” stick on the bumper – making the car instantly worthless. Hillary lost the election, but no one can deny she had a huge and zealous following – just not big enough.

The same people saying Hillary was winning are now saying Biden is winning. I have seen zero evidence that anyone other than Jill Biden and China are enthusiastic about his election run. I thought Hillary would lose, but that she had a small chance because she did have a fair amount of dedicated supporters that didn't care about her alleged crimes.

Forget the Polls – they are lies: Sir Charles Dilke (later attributed to Mark Twain) said “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." THE POLLS ARE WRONG.

Most Important Poll Over the weekend I drove down I-94, the main artery in Chicago. After 30 miles of driving and passing thousands of cars, I did NOT see one Biden sticker. NOT ONE. That does not bode well for a democrat in one of the most democratic cities. I did see cars with the “I'm with her” sticker scraped off, but not replaced with a Biden sticker. (see below).

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The king makers who make and own Presidents have to know this too. Unless something dramatic happens in the next 55 days, this will be a blow out election in favor of Trump. The markets know this too, or we would not be running higher in the face of $5 trillion more in stock market taxes proposed by Mr. Biden.

Even the most staunch Democrat with a slight amount of objectivity knows that Biden can't win a debate with himself, let alone Trump.

So will we see an election where the Democrat party simply accepts the facts and hopes for the best, or one where they will turn a blind eye to chaos? I am not suggesting anyone in politics is Machiavellian enough to actually give evens a little shove.

If you are of the mind that Biden does have a chance of winning, or that events will get more chaotic before the elections, that would mean you are likely to be more hedged on your stock positions that usual – or out of the market altogether. I say this based on what the market is saying, not my favor of one candidate over another. It does me ZERO benefit getting emotional on the elections. George Soro's hatred for Trump cost him $1 billion in bad bets in 2016. I want to learn from that.

DAYS UNTIL ELECTION = 59

We sold off hard yesterday cleaning out most of the naive gamblers who confuse a bull market with brains. The slow-to-exit people will puke today, and then real buyers can come back.

NEXT BIG DAYS:

Sept 29 – Presidential debate #1
October 15 – Presidential debate #2
October 22 – Presidential debate #3

I am still standing by my prediction (made December 31, 2019) that we will be positive for the year and making new all-time highs by the end of the year. I maintained this stance even when the SPX was down -36% for the year (this has been here since January 1).

S&P 500 Price Limits

From 8:30 a.m. to 2:25 p.m. CST, there are successive price limits corresponding to 7%, 13%, and 20% declines below the previous trading day’s reference price.

From 2:25 p.m. until the 3:00 p.m. CST close of the cash equity market, only the 20% price limit will be applicable.

2020 ONE-YEAR PREDICTION:
Average year with lots of intermittent volatility
(+6.07% so far)

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A separate update is coming.


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LAUGH OF THE DAY

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You provide the coffee and we will take care of the rest.

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