TODAY – Hostage Situation – Today and tomorrow are the last days.
ONLY 2 MORE DAYS OF HAVING TO TALK ABOUT POLITICS ! ! ! !
(Please do not take offense to what I write here. I am not being partisan or trying to upset people. I am trying to make a prediction on an election, and how it will affect the market. I upset people in 2016, but was right. I upset people with Brexit, but was right. And I am sure I am inadvertently upsetting people today. NOT MY PLAN. I am just giving my reasons for why I say what I think will happen without supporting or endorsing any candidate.
Our job as traders is to judge the winner of a beauty contest. We can't pick who we think is the prettiest. We have to guess who the judges will think is the prettiest. I never agreed with the choice of Ms. Universe, but it didn't make her any less the winner).
Yogi Berra was the working man's philosopher and once said: “It is like deja vu all over again”. Election 2020 is almost exactly like election 2016, and people wonder why I feel so confident in my prediction Trump will win.
The Chicago Bears before Mike Ditka was the worse team ever, and deservingly so. They practiced Einstein's theory of insanity by doing the same thing over-and-over again expecting a different result. Walter Payton left, Walter Payton right, Walter Payton up the middle, punt. The fact that he always had all 11 men chasing him on every play and only missed 1 game is amazing.
Because I obviously am a masochist, I remained a Bears fan growing up. It also helped that I met Walter Payton several times when Soldier Field was being remolded and they used Northwestern's Dyke Stadium which was a block away from my grade school. Trust me, I got more out of climbing the playground fence (including a signed football that I gave my brother) than I would have from sleeping in another math class. The majority of people in this country can't do long division either.
TRUMP WILL WIN and the market will run higher.
If I am wrong and Biden wins, we will fall at least 10% fast. It will stop down -20% if we are lucky.
I have not changed or wavered in my opinion since I first made the prediction. The fact that we are living in Cobbler's Cove, Pennsylvania in a deju vu of GROUND HOGS DAY makes it even more steadfast. I grew up blocks away from Bill Murry and went to the same high school, but I hated this one movie of his. It doesn't make the movie less real.
The good news is that a recent survey found that 68% of Americans “feel EXTREME stress” from the elections. The good news is that in 2 days, some of this stress will end after the usual 1 week of crying and riots. Lock yourself down for a week like it is corona 3.0, and stay out of Chicago, Portland, Detroit, Baltimore, etc.
My favorite part will be watching 20 celebrities going to the airport to move to Canada again, only to return in an hour.
I know, I know...I am a jerk. I have been hearing that for 6 years when I said “China is our real enemy, not Russia”. Russia has a smaller GDP than Brazil, and is not much bigger than Indonesia. Russia is not putting fiberglass in our medication like China.