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Prepared by StratagemTRADE.com and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Tuesday | October 20, 2020

Hello Eizell.

YESTERDAY'S CLOSING PRICES

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DAYS UNTIL ELECTION = 14

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YESTERDAY: October 19

SPX 3426.92 -56.89

The market opened higher in anticipation of the usual cliché - “today is the day the corona virus stimulus would pass”. Money from helicopters would come down and sprinkle $1200 to everyone, and big bucks to airlines and other industries in trouble. We were told that there was a 48-hour deadline (Tuesday evening) before the Speaker of the House would take her toys and leave negotiations.

With the lack of good news, the early gains started to evaporate.

The longer the day went on with no news, reminders that it was the 33-anniversary of the crash, Morgan suggesting we had a 10% correction coming, etc. the more the market wafted lower.

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90 minutes before the close, it was reported that Trump's willingness to go from his original $1.2T, to $1.6T, to $1.8T and then $1.9T in order to compromise, was going to be rejected by both sides. It was the mama bear and papa bear problem. The democrats said “too little”. The republicans said “too much”.

The deal was dead, and had little hope of being done before the election. With this futures stopped walking down the stairs, and instead leap down the stairs. The Dow closed lower by 410 points, and the SPX closed down -56.89 (-1.63%). AAPL capitulated on the close and settled down -3.04, though it did fight all day to bounce. It really feels as if this name will bounce hard one day soon.

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TODAY: October 20

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TODAY – Hostage Situation – Hard to negotiate the markets in these situations.

NO – that is not Bernie and Joe Biden above holding Carrot Top hostage. The markets are being held hostage by everything that is artificial. It is earning season and no one is watching earnings because they mean little compared to the artificial saccharine sweetening this market.

When news comes out, the market moves 500 points before you can react. That is not trading – that is roller coaster rides where you are strapped in or on the platform.

Scenarios:

ELECTION

There is a hostage situation over the elections. I don't know who is going to win. It is rare for an incumbent to lose. I do know that Biden is not up 16 points above Trump like the media reports. If Biden's camp thought that, they would not be talking about a contested election. With no accurate and unbiased way to judge the outcome, we are held hostage to the outcome for 2 weeks more.

STIMULUS

This has been holding the market hostage for months. And as people needlessly suffer, games are being played by members of congress who get $174k a year no matter how bad the economy is. When you make over $14k a month, you lose perspective on how much a waiter needs his tips, and worry about re-election more.

For months the market has been in the waiting room for the surgeon to come out and tell us the results. Everyone is exhausted, read the TIME magazines that are 2 years old, and can't get the 19-inch TV remote in the corner to work.

FED

The market is now held hostage to permanent Fed stimulus, though at the last meeting, the Fed put much of the onus of responsibility on Congress for relief.

NEXT BIG DAYS:

October 22 – Presidential debate #3

I am still standing by my prediction (made December 31, 2019) that we will be positive for the year and making new all-time highs by the end of the year. I maintained this stance even when the SPX was down -36% for the year (this has been here since January 1).

S&P 500 Price Limits

From 8:30 a.m. to 2:25 p.m. CST, there are successive price limits corresponding to 7%, 13%, and 20% declines below the previous trading day’s reference price.

From 2:25 p.m. until the 3:00 p.m. CST close of the cash equity market, only the 20% price limit will be applicable.

2020 ONE-YEAR PREDICTION:
Average year with lots of intermittent volatility
(+6.07% so far)

POT Logo


A separate update coming.

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DISCUSSION BOARD

Up and Running for POT students (so far).

Really quickly...

To help in your quest for the best possible options trading outcomes, we would like to know what level of options trading knowledge and skills you currently have. Please click the button below to indicate what level of trader you are? Please skip if you already responded. Thank you for participating.

P.O.T. Schedule

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LAUGH OF THE DAY

Trading is a tough job on a stomach void of coffee and humor.
You provide the coffee and we will take care of the rest.

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I put this here under “Laugh of the Day” NOT to be political, nor say anything negative about Biden or his tax plan. The fact that NEW YORK (420,000 people left in 2020) and CHICAGO (over 105,000 left so far in 2020) are major cities with net people leaving allow you to form your own judgment why. I am sure there is a simple reason for the mass exodus that politicians are not seeing.

The funny part is one of the reasons 50 Cent is leaving NY is about basketball.

EVEN I can't quote him on what he said about the tax increase and NY, other than the funny part which went: "F*CK NEW YORK. The KNICKS never win anyway,"

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