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Prepared by StratagemTRADE.com and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Tuesday | July 14, 2020

Hello Eizell.

YESTERDAY'S CLOSING PRICES

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YESTERDAY: July 13

Most of the day was as expected and predicted. In the MORNING COFFEE REPORT yesterday, I expected the market to get up to 3200 in the SPX. If we went above that, we would perhaps get as high as 3233. I was off by 2 points – lol – as we got up to 3235. This had the SPX in positive territory for the year.

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What came next was a surprise. We stayed at resistance 3233 most of the day until the Texas Fed's Robert Kotter stated that the economy is doing better than expected, and if it keeps up at this pace, the Fed will stop feeding the beast with unlimited money flow. This took the Minis from +45 on the day to -30 (75 point reversal) by the close.

AAPL had been higher by over +14 points at within pennies of $400, but closed down -1.77 at 381.91.

TSLA was as high as 1794 after it was reported that Elon was now worth more than Warren Buffet, and the company was worth $310 billion. There is a phenomenon known as the “Sports Illustrated Curse”. Athletes who make the cover of the magazine usually see their career decline after. The same thing was going on with TSLA.

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TODAY: July 14

TODAY – Choppy.

LONG TERM – NEW ALL TIME HIGHS (possibly), and then a NASTY trade war sell-off – probably after the election.

Yesterday changed things for the short term. Much of this fantastic run higher that took the market into positive territory for the year in the SPX is based solely on investor's trust that the Fed has their back. Everyone is working under the premise that the Feds is 100% determined to keep the economy propped up, no matter what it takes, until the coronavirus situation is behind us.

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Yesterday, things changed when Robert Kotter of the Fed said that the Fed may be applying the brakes soon. This has investors rethinking how much tailwind the Fed is going to give them.

I would not be surprised if we jump higher today, nor would I be surprised if people sell shares trying to cash in some chips.

I am still standing by my prediction (made December 31, 2019) that we will be positive for the year and making new all-time highs by the end of the year. I maintained this stance even when the SPX was down -35% for the year.

S&P 500 Price Limits

From 8:30 a.m. to 2:25 p.m. CST, there are successive price limits corresponding to 7%, 13%, and 20% declines below the previous trading day’s reference price.

From 2:25 p.m. until the 3:00 p.m. CST close of the cash equity market, only the 20% price limit will be applicable.

2020 ONE-YEAR PREDICTION:
Average year with lots of intermittent volatility
(-2.34% so far)

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It was a fun day yesterday. Friday we entered into a short term call spread to take advantage of my opinion that we will finally breach 3185, 3200, and maybe get to 3233. Not only did we spread it off at the highs of the day, but cleaned it up again at the lows of the days. Does it get sexier than this?


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LAUGH OF THE DAY

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