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Prepared by and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Tuesday | February 11, 2020

Hello Mayumi.



YESTERDAY: February 10

Yesterday, I was nervous about the markets. In the pre-markets, the Minis were down -0.7% and close to 3300 in the SPX. Then China said they were opening the Foxconn plant, and TSLA was reportedly also opening its China factory. This was enough for the market to jump.

The SPX closed up 0.73% (+24.38) at 3352.09. AAPL came out of a -$3 deficit to close up $1.52. TSLA closed up 23.21 at 771.28. Meanwhile, bonds/TLT were still nervous and closed up slightly higher. BA had a good day and is quietly climbing without much media attention. Yesterday, it closed up 7.92 at 344.67.


TODAY: February 11

Again...from day-to-day it is hard to know what the media will do with the coronavirus, possibly creating a temporary scare lower. Over the next couple of months, however, the trend is higher despite the over extended SPX P/E of close to 18.9 X earnings.

This market is overdone. Earnings are average with 2.3% gains in Q4 when Q1 was 4%. That does NOT mean we will correct soon. Things get way overdone in both directions.


I HATE talking about politics but it will play a HUGE role this year – more than in 2016. Things are getting nuttier. Because the markets hate socialism, every screw up by the DNC or item that knocks Bernie or Warren back is bullish for the market. What is getting kinetic is that now that the impeachment is behind us, President Trump has fired 70 people and Attorney General Barr is looking at Biden and the Ukraine. The Clinton Foundation is being looked at too. I am not sure if Trump is behind this, but you know the other side is going to push back. It does appear that Trump took a page out of Shakespeare and read “Cry Havoc and Let Slip the Dogs of War”. This is going to get crazy, and start moving markets SOON. The Democrats have to have a front runner soon with less than 270 days until the election.

Average year with lots of intermittent volatility
(+3.75% so far)

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I have made some changes that will hopefully avoid the headaches exhibited yesterday. I have heard that there were lots of technical issues. Someone attributed it to the fact that the earth was perfectly balanced yesterday where you could balance things, sort of like when you can balance an egg during the Equinox. I am not sure I believe that, but it would make sense given how out of balance I was. LOL.



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