DAYS UNTIL ELECTION = Lift-Off
TODAY – PLACE YOUR BETS
LAST DAY OF POLITICS. TOMORROW'S COVERAGE = RIOTS
(Please do not take offense to what I write here. I am not being partisan or trying to upset people. I am trying to make a prediction on an election, and how it will affect the market. I upset people in 2016, but was right. I upset people with Brexit, but was right. And I am sure I am inadvertently upsetting people today. NOT MY PLAN. I am just giving my reasons for why I say what I think will happen without supporting or endorsing any candidate.
Our job as traders is to judge the winner of a beauty contest. We can't pick who we think is the prettiest. We have to guess who the judges will think is the prettiest. I never agreed with the choice of Ms. Universe, but it didn't make her any less the winner).
The odds tonight are TRUMP +165. This means that if you bet $100 and Trump wins, you get back your $100 PLUS another $165. This obviously means Trump is the underdog. I am standing by my prediction just like I did in 2016 when everyone was saying “There is NO Path to 270 (electoral votes) for Trump”.
The media was claiming that he had no mathematical chance, and they were right. He never had 270, but skipped to 304.
Trump is the incumbent. Only two times in history has an incumbent not won, and both times during a stock market crash. Right now the market is up 3% for the year despite the country being shut down.
If you took away the names below, and just look at the policies, there is NO WAY the majority of people would vote for higher taxes, more government control, defund police, allow Iran to have the bomb, and taking away guns.
Higher taxes, open boarders and socialism is only appealing to people with no money and no work ethics – or optimism that life will get better.