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Prepared by and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Tuesday | November 3, 2020

Hello Eizell.




YESTERDAY: November 2

SPX 3310.24 40.28

The market took off to the upside right on the open. In the night trading session, the E-minis were down about -13 points as crude oil fell. The blame for the drop in oil was placed on France and Germany shutting down again.

By the open, oil made it back into positive territory. With the help of bonds jumping higher, the SPX hit a high of 3330 in the first 30 minutes. AAPL had FINALLY stopped being a focal point for the markets to follow as a north star, instead all eyes were on oil and bonds. And just like that, AAPL didn't matter.

With hurt feelings that no one cared about it anymore, Tim Cook announced that they are having a new product release surprise on Nov 10. Oh please, let it be the iPhone 21 so I can skip 9 more upgrades of useless things like different size and different colors.


After the first 30 minutes, futures slid lower in a very slow fashion, taking until after lunch to hit the lows of 3280 (+9.78), before a hard bounce higher into the close.

Surprisingly, the markets were NOT focusing on the elections as much as they were looking at oil and bonds. This time in 2016, the market was jumpy as one pundit after another made predictions. Will Hillary win by 10, 20 or 30 points?





(Please do not take offense to what I write here. I am not being partisan or trying to upset people. I am trying to make a prediction on an election, and how it will affect the market. I upset people in 2016, but was right. I upset people with Brexit, but was right. And I am sure I am inadvertently upsetting people today. NOT MY PLAN. I am just giving my reasons for why I say what I think will happen without supporting or endorsing any candidate.

Our job as traders is to judge the winner of a beauty contest. We can't pick who we think is the prettiest. We have to guess who the judges will think is the prettiest. I never agreed with the choice of Ms. Universe, but it didn't make her any less the winner).

The odds tonight are TRUMP +165. This means that if you bet $100 and Trump wins, you get back your $100 PLUS another $165. This obviously means Trump is the underdog. I am standing by my prediction just like I did in 2016 when everyone was saying “There is NO Path to 270 (electoral votes) for Trump”.

The media was claiming that he had no mathematical chance, and they were right. He never had 270, but skipped to 304.

Trump is the incumbent. Only two times in history has an incumbent not won, and both times during a stock market crash. Right now the market is up 3% for the year despite the country being shut down.

If you took away the names below, and just look at the policies, there is NO WAY the majority of people would vote for higher taxes, more government control, defund police, allow Iran to have the bomb, and taking away guns.

Higher taxes, open boarders and socialism is only appealing to people with no money and no work ethics – or optimism that life will get better.



If the race is close with one of the candidates winning by exactly 270 candidates, there will be lawsuits, riots, and chaos. The market will fall like a rock.



Lochel’s Bakery in Hatboro, Pennsylvania. Every election they make a cookie for each candidate, and count which sells the most. They have been right every election. Trump cookies are outselling Biden cookies 6 to 1. That equates to 332+ electoral votes (by my ratio). I bet some people reading this are believing this is my method of selection, just like they believe CNN. LOL.

Keep in mind that 90% of the people you see in social media and CNN represent only 10% of the population that has NOTHING else to do with their life than complain and cause trouble. They do NOT represent most Americans who want a life like their parents gave them – affordable taxes, less government, parents (not government) make decisions, and a safe neighborhood.

The good news is that most of this will be known by midnight. Going back to 1972, only Hillary took until past midnight (2:29 EAST) to admit defeat. Then again, she still claims she won.

THANK GOD THIS IS DONE. Last night of politics for another 4 years ! ! ! Whether Trump wins or Biden wins, I win for 4 years. I HATE POLITICS.

We will have to deal with the: “If Trump wins it was the Russians, and if he loses it is because Biden is a genius debater for 2 years", but I will ignore that.

I am still standing by my prediction (made December 31, 2019) that we will be positive for the year and making new all-time highs by the end of the year. I maintained this stance even when the SPX was down -36% for the year (this has been here since January 1).

S&P 500 Price Limits

From 8:30 a.m. to 2:25 p.m. CST, there are successive price limits corresponding to 7%, 13%, and 20% declines below the previous trading day’s reference price.

From 2:25 p.m. until the 3:00 p.m. CST close of the cash equity market, only the 20% price limit will be applicable.

Average year with lots of intermittent volatility
(+2.46% so far)

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