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Prepared by StratagemTRADE.com and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Wednesday | September 30, 2020

Hello Eizell.

YESTERDAY'S CLOSING PRICES

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DAYS UNTIL ELECTION = 33
First Debate = Last Night

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YESTERDAY: September 29

SPX 3335.47 +-16.13

Yesterday was a day when the chaos of the world was finally being acknowledged by the markets. The covid bailout politics sent the markets lower after the open when Pelosi said nothing has been achieved and they will address it tomorrow. We also had the debates in our sights, with lots of rumors about if Biden was going to wear an ear piece, need a 30-minute break in the middle, etc. When the market opened higher, it appeared as if they wanted to trump some of the month's losses before the end of the quarter, but then our new reality known as “2020” kicked in with the usual headlines and renewed corona concerns (which happens once a week).

The day was mostly lower across the board with the SPX closing down -16.13, AAPL closing down -$0.87.

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Debates:

I think Biden looked better than I anticipated, but if you closed your eyes and listened – it was shocking. Though he called Trump a clown, liar and joke, Biden has to be acknowledged for not challenging Trump to a fist fight or push up contest. LOL

People at home passively listening and waiting for a typical mic drop didn't get it, but they also missed how bad Biden speaks. There was no Hillary comment like “because you would be in jail”.

If my son won the Distinguished Service Medal, I think I would know it and not call it the Conspicuous Service Medal. What is so conspicuous about it? And when Biden said he wants people to call 9-11, why wouldn't they call 9-1-1 instead? Listening, not watching, you caught a lot of these gaffes on Biden.

I will admit that Biden did clear the very, very low bar that was expected of him. Biden flat out LIED about Hunter taking money. Hunter took money, it is a fact, and there is documentation. Biden said it was a lie. Trump let him wiggle out of that when Biden played the shell game and exchanged Hunter Biden with Bo Biden.

Biden said he wanted the police driving around with psychologists to keep the cops calm and not using force. When a guy is robbing a store at gun point, is a psychologist going to hop out of the car and give therapy?

What is amazing is Biden got caught by Trump not knowing what college he went to, and Trump let his wiggle out. And when Biden was called out for being at the bottom of the class, not the top (like Biden claims), Biden was silent and Trump let him wiggle.

Biden didn't look good, but Trump was not on his game. Trump didn't hold Biden under water when he had the chance, and didn't have any mic drop moments. In short – it was lame. Trump failing to pin Biden down hard was enough of a victory for Biden that the media can spin it as Biden winning.

Trump's best hits were proving Biden lied about his college, and proving that NOT A SINGLE police agency endorsed Biden despite Biden saying he had plenty. When asked which police agencies enforced him, Biden couldn't name one. To Biden's credit, there may be a police group that endorses him, but Biden couldn't remember the name since he can't remember his wife's name once in a while.

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MARKETS AFTER DEBATES

During the debates, it looked like Trump was leading, though only slightly, and the Minis ran higher by over +$20. Once the debates ended, the “pundits” started doing a “Biden Victory Dance” and the Minis reversed from +20 to -10 (30 point reversal) in 15 mins.

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TODAY: September 30

TODAY – OH OH...LOWER.

Ever see a playground fight with 3rd graders? They roll on the ground and someone may cry, but it is hurt feelings only. Usually there is no clear winner, but you tell everyone after recess that your friend won. The media is Biden's friend, so Biden won. Objectively, Trump was too aggressive, but won slightly. Biden wouldn't answer any controversial question, and just started calling Trump names. Again, 3rd grade.

We will be down because the media is spinning this as a huge Biden win, and people without the cognitive ability to formulate an objective opinion will let the media do it for them.

I am sure that if you carefully read the transcript of the debate, you would say Trump won. Biden said Antifa is not real. He didn't answer if he would pack the supreme court. He got caught in lie after lie.

When you see it on TV, the fake smile throws you off, and you don't LISTEN to the answer.

Yesterday, Biden won by not being knocked out, making it slightly more possible to win the White House. Trump needed to destroy him, and he didn't. And the realization that Biden has a chance to win the White House will hurt the markets. $2 trillion in new taxes just to Wall Street, the Green New Deal, New taxes on trades, etc. Wall Street will hate this stuff.

People who doubt me and think I am saying this as a Trump supporter: If Biden won the debate and Biden is good for Wall Street, why did the Minis reverse from +20 to -27 once the major networks started to High Five themselves on the Biden win?

Thank God this stuff is over with in 33 days, plus 13 weeks of contested recounts, riots, etc.

NEXT BIG DAYS:

Sept 29 – Presidential debate #1
October 15 – Presidential debate #2
October 22 – Presidential debate #3

I am still standing by my prediction (made December 31, 2019) that we will be positive for the year and making new all-time highs by the end of the year. I maintained this stance even when the SPX was down -36% for the year (this has been here since January 1).

S&P 500 Price Limits

From 8:30 a.m. to 2:25 p.m. CST, there are successive price limits corresponding to 7%, 13%, and 20% declines below the previous trading day’s reference price.

From 2:25 p.m. until the 3:00 p.m. CST close of the cash equity market, only the 20% price limit will be applicable.

2020 ONE-YEAR PREDICTION:
Average year with lots of intermittent volatility
(+3.71% so far)

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A separate update coming – GOOD STUFF!


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