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Prepared by StratagemTRADE.com and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Monday | November 9, 2020

Hello Eizell.

YESTERDAY'S CLOSING PRICES

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YESTERDAY: November 6

SPX 3509.44 -1.01

After four days of running higher in a shocking and powerful manner, the market took a day off. The SPX closed down a mere -1.01 in quiet trading.

While Biden is declared the winner by the media, it is far from the final verdict. We may not know the results of the election until the Electoral College decides by a December 14 deadline. The Trump team accuses election fraud, which on the surface sounds like “sour grapes”. Those digging deep and objectively into the allegations see that there is some credibility to the claims that have to be explored.

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I am stating the next words as the argument the Trump team is making, and I am not getting involved emotionally. It is weird that 1,340,000 ballots would come in during the middle of the night when the counting ended, and not a single vote came in for Trump. One need not be a statistician to see that number as being a little more than odd.

I STRESS this is the allegations that are being made. If true, even the most vehement Biden supporters who loves his country more than any candidate, would want this looked into. It could work the other way next time. Apparently, the ballots were also secretly water marked to detect fraud, but I know little about this.

I was hoping the election was behind us but like everything in 2020, nothing is normal. Neither was Friday's unchanged market after 4 days of a 7.4% run higher with uncertainty looming. A move of -7.4% would have been less surprising.

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TODAY – HIgher.

This year has been one of fear.

China trade fears.

Fear of 5% IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) when the real numbers are showing 0.24%. The seasonal flue is about 0.1%.

Fear of rioters coming to a town near you.

Fear of more lock downs, running out of toilet paper and meat, etc.

Fear of unemployment, addiction, divorce and kids left behind in school because of shutdowns.

Fear of election results, for both Trump and Biden supporters who both have been sold fear. Biden fans have been sold Trump is crazy, and Trump fans have been sold Biden will destroy the constitution, economy, and Supreme Court.

The common denominator in all of these fears is = uncontrolled media making up facts to sensationalize and get ratings. They are the real enemy.

I fear CNN, FB, TWTR and Google more than Russia or Iran.

I WAS WRONG. Everyone is wrong. The professionals have been going off the GOLDEN RULE OF TRADING that uncertainty causes markets to go down. We still have uncertainty over stimulus, the elections and the virus; and yet, the market is out of control strong. Why?

Money on the side lines. People are getting immune to fear. The fear is not the elections, the virus, or stimulus. The fear is missing out on the move higher. The move is panic buying for fear of not being able to get stocks when the virus dies and the election results are known.

I am still standing by my prediction (made December 31, 2019) that we will be positive for the year and making new all-time highs by the end of the year. I maintained this stance even when the SPX was down -36% for the year (this has been here since January 1).

S&P 500 Price Limits

From 8:30 a.m. to 2:25 p.m. CST, there are successive price limits corresponding to 7%, 13%, and 20% declines below the previous trading day’s reference price.

From 2:25 p.m. until the 3:00 p.m. CST close of the cash equity market, only the 20% price limit will be applicable.

2020 ONE-YEAR PREDICTION:
Average year with lots of intermittent volatility
(+8.63% so far)

POT Logo


Separate update is coming.

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DISCUSSION BOARD

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LAUGH OF THE DAY

Trading is a tough job on a stomach void of coffee and humor.
You provide the coffee and we will take care of the rest.

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Disclaimer

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