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Prepared by StratagemTRADE.com and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Tuesday | March 3, 2020

Hello Mayumi.

YESTERDAY'S CLOSING PRICES

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YESTERDAY: March 2

IS IT OVER? Is the coronavirus being accepted as a “non-event” overnight?” Or is the over-inflated stock valuations now at acceptable levels?

OPEN

The market opened with nervousness. The SPX opened $40 points higher, and then fell. Within the first 30-minutes, the SPX was down $9 points, and traders were getting nervous that the late Friday jump was a head fake.

SECOND HOUR AND MAJORITY OF DAY

After the first hour, the SPX and stocks started to climb again. This time, the SPX went higher by about 80 points and vacillated in a $20-point range until the last hour of trading.

The sitting in a right range, even though it was $80 points higher, had people still a little concerned. Most bottoms in the market see the major indexes run higher, and then keep running. This was not happening today—we just sat and felt heavy. Ironic how the market can feel heavy despite the Dow being up 800 points.

With 2 hours left in the day, the market started to roll over and fall. What is weird is that it didn't feel like it was going to go into a “flat spin”, but was a controlled decline.

LAST HOUR

Then in a seemingly collective sigh of relief, we saw a voracious appetite for risk. Stocks were bought at the “ask price” as fast as a new “ask price” showed on the screen. The safe have bonds / TLT went from positive in the day to negative. Bonds kept falling in a “risk on” attack.

The SPX ran high by 100 points (1000 Dow points) in the last hour. I guess there were a lot of people trapped short. The coronavirus has people irrationally nervous. How nervous? Look at this headline?

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TODAY: March 3

Was yesterday's last hour the moment that the stock market realized the media was making the coronavirus a bigger panic than russian collusion or Persian Gulf War Part I—“The Mother of All Wars”?

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Did we get sold another bag of flaming dog poop by the media to create panic and prop up their sagging viewership? Is this their plan to prevent us from going to watch Chappelle on NETFLIX?

I am not sure, but we should know more by tomorrow. By Friday, we will have a MUCH better understanding of the risk to the US.

2020 ONE-YEAR PREDICTION:
Average year with lots of intermittent volatility
(-4.25% so far)

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Separate update coming.

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