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Prepared by and Scott
Writing under the nom de plume of J.L. LORD

Friday | April 17, 2020

Hello Eizell.





The day started with several horrific economic numbers released. In addition to last weeks scary initial jobless claims numbers, yesterday saw another 5.245 M lost, while the estimate was 5.0 M. The worst ever Philly Fed Index came in at -56.6 vs and estimated 30.0. That is a HUGE miss.


Despite these numbers, the markets opened with the SPX opening higher before falling. The SPX opened with cash touching 2800, but 40 minutes later it was at 2765 (-18.24 pts).

The day was very quiet and in perhaps the tightest range of the month, with the SPX vacillating around the unchanged levels.


Boeing (BA) was destroyed and trading down over $10 points most of the day, and taking 100 points off any Dow advance. This went throughout the whole travel sector as oil fell below $20 p/b as well. BA closed down -11.74 points (134.24) while JBLU closed down -0.46 (8.73), AAL closed down 1.22 (11.07). The SPX closed where it started the day, just under 2800 (+16.19) while the Dow closed up 33.33.


TODAY: April 17


Shortly after the close of Thursday, leaks and hints of what President Trump was going to talk about at a special news conference at 5pm Chicago time came out. It was announced that President Trump was going to instruct the state's governors it was time to slowly restart opening the country. This took the MINIS up 90 points higher in the after-hours market, which equates to about 900 Dow points.

With this news, BA, which was down almost 12 on the day, jumped 12 points higher. AAL jumped $1. AAPL jumped $9. AMD jumped 1.50. AMZN has been running higher in the shutdown showed no response to the news.


We are going to open much higher with the SPX just under 2900. This is amazing considering yesterday saw the SPX hating anything above 2800. What is more amazing is that the all-time high of the SPX is 3303. We will be only 400 SPX points from the all-time highs. I am still standing by my prediction (made Dec 31, 2019) that we will be positive for the year and making new all-time highs by the end of the year. I maintained this stance even when the SPX was down -35% for the year.

S&P 500 Price Limits

From 8:30 a.m. to 2:25 p.m. CST, there are successive price limits corresponding to 7%, 13%, and 20% declines below the previous trading day’s reference price.

From 2:25 p.m. until the 3:00 p.m. CST close of the cash equity market, only the 20% price limit will be applicable.


Average year with lots of inter42mittent volatility
(-13.35% so far)

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Going to be a busy day. A separate update coming!



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